Just an observation on national oil companies (NOC) in my region of interest (South East Asia) since the collapse of the oil price in 2014. An implicit role of the national oil companies is to provide technical and professional employment to the citizens of the country. There is the trickle down effect of spending by the NOC's employees but also an overall development impact of raising the skills pool of the nation. So with the oil price collapse, and the continuing demand to satisfy the government's income requirements (some SEA countries have a heavy reliance on oil revenues), the NOCs are faced with a challenge.
Maintaining cash positivity in the face of a 50% cut in income has required oil companies to take action. Immediately, many suspended investment projects and reduced external non-critical spending. Next was internal and supply chain efficiencies: cutting staff and imposing blanket price reductions on suppliers. This immediate cash saving activity has been followed with a period of portfolio re-adjustment. Some companies offloading assets to boost cash whilst others using the opportunity to acquire assets that provide a better long term strategic fit.
For NOCs the challenge is that one of these levers to reduce cash outflow, cutting staff, is politically difficult given their implicit role of providing employment for nationals. Non-critical external spend (like that on consultants) has been slashed and, within their procurement systems, huge pressure has been applied to suppliers to take straight price reductions. But lay-offs of nationals have been avoided.
The low oil environment does provide an opportunity for NOCs to make good on the ambitions they all had to become truly international operators. For those that can access funding, there are assets available that would extend their footprint and allow them to move into new areas of oil and gas production using new technologies. But it seems the needs of public coffers are at least as demanding as those of the shareholders of International Oil Companies as we have seen NOCs re-focus themselves on their national or regional assets. PTTEP, the Thai NOC's upstream division, have announced such a move after several years of international expansion.
Longer term, as the domestic resources deplete further, NOCs in South East Asia will have to make a decision to either wind-down or seek to convert themselves into true International Oil Companies. The government shareholders will still derive value from their NOCs but it will have to be as arms length investors. If such an arrangement is to be successful NOCs can no longer be used as a shadow lever of public policy or worse, a piggy bank to be raided in a cash crisis.
Maintaining cash positivity in the face of a 50% cut in income has required oil companies to take action. Immediately, many suspended investment projects and reduced external non-critical spending. Next was internal and supply chain efficiencies: cutting staff and imposing blanket price reductions on suppliers. This immediate cash saving activity has been followed with a period of portfolio re-adjustment. Some companies offloading assets to boost cash whilst others using the opportunity to acquire assets that provide a better long term strategic fit.
For NOCs the challenge is that one of these levers to reduce cash outflow, cutting staff, is politically difficult given their implicit role of providing employment for nationals. Non-critical external spend (like that on consultants) has been slashed and, within their procurement systems, huge pressure has been applied to suppliers to take straight price reductions. But lay-offs of nationals have been avoided.
The low oil environment does provide an opportunity for NOCs to make good on the ambitions they all had to become truly international operators. For those that can access funding, there are assets available that would extend their footprint and allow them to move into new areas of oil and gas production using new technologies. But it seems the needs of public coffers are at least as demanding as those of the shareholders of International Oil Companies as we have seen NOCs re-focus themselves on their national or regional assets. PTTEP, the Thai NOC's upstream division, have announced such a move after several years of international expansion.
Longer term, as the domestic resources deplete further, NOCs in South East Asia will have to make a decision to either wind-down or seek to convert themselves into true International Oil Companies. The government shareholders will still derive value from their NOCs but it will have to be as arms length investors. If such an arrangement is to be successful NOCs can no longer be used as a shadow lever of public policy or worse, a piggy bank to be raided in a cash crisis.
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